San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres (07/09/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Predictions

The San Francisco Giants visit the San Diego Padres still trailing the top spot in the NL West. In fact, the Giants even lost two games to the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies in the NL Wildcard race.

Things are looking bad at San Fran, especially after a 107-win season. But they get ace Carlos Rodon on the mound for this Saturday game in a pivotal position for the Giants.

In the meantime, the Padres are thriving even with their top two offensive players injured. They have a top-five rotation in MLB, and part of that is thanks to today’s starter Yu Darvish.

So which team has the advantage?

Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds and my predictions for this Saturday afternoon game at PetCo Park.

Odds of San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

The Giants are small underdogs even with Rodon on the mound, which seems fair given the quality of Darvish and the Padres.

The total is admittedly low at 6.5, but they are two of the best pitchers in the game. The wind is also expected to blow from left field at PetCo on Saturday afternoon.

Let’s dive a little deeper to find the value.

San Francisco Giants starting lineup

RF L. Wade L
CF M. Yastrzemski L
3B E. Longoria R
LF J. Pederson L
1B B. Belt L
SS T.Estrada R
2B O.Flores R
DH T. La Stella L
C C. Casali R

San Francisco Giants vs. Yu Darvish

Although his fastball speed is higher than ever, Darvish’s strikeouts are down. Its withdrawal rate is down nearly 7% year-over-year, but it’s still going strong.

Darvish became a heavy hitter in 2019, and as the pitch floundered in 2021, he’s posted a -6 run value on the cutter so far this season.

Darvish is more of a control pitcher now, keeping his walks and more balls in the park. He can rely on the guys behind him a bit more now, given the Padres lead the league in Outs Above Average. It’s a nice change from the Cubs and Rangers.

However, Darvish has been pretty bad historically against these giants. He made eight starts against San Fran in his career with a 7.13 ERA while allowing a .557 SLG. He struck out 50 in those 41 innings, but he also walked 13 guys while giving up 13 homers.

The Giants aren’t afraid of an offense. Joc Pederson destroyed baseball, as his Baseball Savant page shows:

Image credit: Baseball Savant

But Mike Yastrzemski went down, the bench bats went down too, and there’s not a lot of firepower on the team outside of that.

They are also injured. Current Giant hitters on the IL include:

  • Curt Casali (96 OPS+)
  • Thairo Estrada (96 OPS+)
  • Evan Longoria (121 OPS+)
  • Luis González (127 OPS+)

Those are four solid sticks, and the Giants have only posted a 76 wRC+ in the past two weeks without them. It is the fourth lowest in baseball.

San Diego Padres starting lineup

CF T. Grisham L
2B J. Cronenworth L
3B M. Machado R
DH L.See R
1B E. Hosmer L
C J. Alfaro R
RF N. Mazara L
SS H. Kim R
LF Brent Rooker

San Diego Padres vs. Carlos Rodon

The Padres’ offense has also been terrible, posting just a 75 wRC+ over the past two weeks to become the third-worst offense in baseball over the streak.

No wonder that total is only 6.5.

But just like the Giants, the Padres are injured. Fernando Tatis Jr. may never return to the field. Manny Machado plays through injury. Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar ended up on the IL.

I’m not going to lie…this lineup seems pretty stripped down right now. Luke Voit is probably the most dangerous bat in the lineup, and that’s not saying much.

The Padres have been decent against left-handed pitchers, but nothing special. And that shouldn’t scare Carlos Rodon too much, who can be vulnerable to good left-handed batting lineups.

It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster for Rodon, who started the season as the NL’s top pitcher before crashing and then recovering. His most recent start was a four-run, five-run clunker against a poor Diamondbacks formation.

Screenshot 2022 07 08 at 10.38.52 AM

Image credit: FanGraphs

Although he has been inconsistent, there is no doubt that he is one of the best pitchers in the game. His 3.2 fWAR trails only Sandy Alcantara in the National League and his 2.87 ERA is backed by a 2.83xERA. So I don’t project any regression for Rodon in the future.

Rodon throws two throws, a four-seam and a slider. He doesn’t need any more throws, he’ll beat you with just those two throws, having shown a run value of -16 combined between them.

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Pick and Prediction

My choices : San Diego Padres ML (-115 in DraftKings Sportsbook)

Rodon struggles on the road.

  • Rodon Home begins: 39IP, 12.92K/9, 2.08 ERA, 1.66 FIP, 2.95xFIP
  • Rodon Road begins: 52IP, 9.69K/9, 3.46 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 3.18 xFIP

By the way, taking the least on Rodon’s props at bat in road starts has been money this season. I’ll look over there once the line opens.

Given Rodon’s home/away splits, I make the throwing game between him and Darvish a wash. The offensive game is also a washout, which means this game can come down to relievers.

While the Padres rank fourth in the xFIP reliever this season (3.63), the Giants rank 22nd (4.10).

So, I’ll back the Padres as long as the line stays below -120.

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