San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers odds and picks – Week 3, 2021

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Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers are unbeaten after two road games against NFC opponents. They will host the defending NFC North champions Green Bay Packers at Levi’s Stadium for their home opener in prime time Sunday Night Football. Here we discuss odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

  • When: Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 5:20 p.m. (NBC)
  • Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
  • Line: 49ers -3.5, plus / minus (o / u) 49.5; 49ers team total greater than 26.5 (-140) and less than 26.5 (-120); The Packers team total more than 22.5 points (-140) and less than 22.5 points (-120); chances of DraftKings sports betting.

Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers got back on track at home by exploding and covering against the Detroit Lions as the 11.5-point favorites at 35-17, a week after being absolutely humiliated in Jacksonville by Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints by the score of 3-38.

The defense of the Saints held Aaron Rodgers to 133 passing yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions and limited the Packers to 43 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. The Packers defense allowed 5 sackless or interception pass touchdowns while giving up 171 rushing yards on 39 carries for an average of 4.4 yards per carry on the New Orleans offense.

Against the Lions, Rodgers threw 4 touchdown passes without an interception, Aaron Jones capturing three of those touchdowns while running 67 yards on 17 carries and a rushed touchdown. The Packers defense sacked and intercepted Lions quarterback Jared Goff once and recovered one of his fumbles while allowing 2 touchdowns, 246 passing yards and 108 rushing yards on 19 carries for an average of 5.7 yards per carry.

Linebacker Za’Darius Smith, tackle David Bakhtiari and safety back Will Redmond will not play against San Francisco. The Packers have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 1.1, are 1-1 ATS, 1-1 above / below.

San Francisco 49ers

Even without Jason verrett and Dr Greenlaw, the Niners defense has proven itself to be still one of the best units in the NFL, scoring strong performances from Fred warner Jr, Jimmy Ward, Jaquiski Tartt, and Deomodore Lenoir, holding the Eagles to a field goal until the last five minutes of the game in a defensive battle with a final score of 17-11. Jalen Hurts was limited to 190 passing yards and zero passing touchdowns and was sacked twice by Nick bosa, and Miles Sanders was limited to 55 rushing yards on 13 carries and no rushing touchdowns.

The legion of Jimmy garoppolo the skeptics and the haters and Trey Lance Stans reacted quickly to criticize Jimmy Garoppolo during the first half against the Eagles, calling for him to be on the bench and for Trey Lance to enter the game, with some even accusing Kyle Shanahan of not playing Trey Lance, refusing to give credit to the Eagles ‘defense as a factor in Garoppolo and Niners’ offensive game plan and in the Week 2 outing.

But cooler analytical heads have warned that the Philadelphia defense is an improved, competitive unit that would be difficult to score on in a game where points would be valuable. Despite losing more running backs to injury, Jimmy Garoppolo did what he needed to do to keep practices alive and win the game, a quality that is not lost on the 49ers legend. Joe Staley:

JaMycal Hasty will not play against the Packers, while Josh Normand, Elie Mitchell, Trey’s sermon, and Emmanuel Mosely are debatable. San Francisco has an ESPN FPI of 2.6, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 over / under.

Prediction

We live in a culture of instant gratification, of gut reaction, of a culture of what you’ve been doing for me lately, which is deeply evident in the public’s perceptions and reactions to Jimmy Garoppolo as a starting quarterback. of the San Francisco 49ers. Instead of appreciating that he just helped the Niners win two road games to start the 2021 season or that Kyle Shanahan is 26-9 (SU) and 20-14-1 ATS. (ATS) with Garoppolo and 7-27 SU and 14-20 ATS without Jimmy, critics denigrate his demise and his tendencies while calling for a rookie who is not guaranteed to produce better results than Jimmy.

The reality is that when the Niners are healthy on both sides of the ball, including the entire San Francisco offensive line and weapons, Jimmy has been a successful quarterback for San Francisco, and the Niners have possessed. the Packers at Levi’s with him as the starter. In his two starts against Green Bay at Levi’s, the Niners won 37-8 as Sunday night’s 3-point favorites in the regular season and 37-20 as 8-point favorites in the Premier League. NFC 2019 conference. Shanahan’s ground offense was the focal point of both of these competitions, and with the 2021 Niners arguably having a better offensive line than in 2019, combined with Green Bay’s fairly soft defense that will also lack its top passer to Smith, there’s no reason to believe San Francisco won’t send the ball down their throats on Sunday night.

On the other hand, when Aaron Rodgers played at Levi’s when Fred Warner Jr and Nick Bosa started, he was limited to 104 passing yards and sacked 5 times in the regular season, and sacked 3 times and intercepted. twice in the playoffs. . With Philly’s strong performance, DeMeco Ryans calmed down some of the talk involving the San Francisco defense after the Lions game. Despite ongoing questions about the Niners’ secondary, we expect the 49ers defense to reach and limit Rodgers without attacking Bakhtiari in the same way the Saints do, and can only consider taking San Francisco if they choose a side. . We also like the Niners team total over 26.5.

The line opened at 49ers (-4), but money came in on Green Bay, bringing the line down to (-3.5). Based on Green Bay being one of the most publicly bet teams and analysts, like the ones in the video above, insisting that Garoppolo and the high school are passive, that San Francisco is overrated and finds all the value in taking the points with the Packers, anyone considering playing Niners ATS might consider waiting to see if that number drops further.

Picks: 49ers -3.5

Season ATS:

2-0

Survey

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and, while equally important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.

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