San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions
the San Diego Padres (23-13) meet the Philadelphia Phillies (17-19) for Game 2 of their 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park with the first pitch scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines of Tipico Sportsbook around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego won the series opener 3-0 on Tuesday thanks to a 10K, 0BB, 5H performance by the pitching staff, which included a quality start from Padres RHP Mike Clevinger.
Philly has lost consecutive games but is 6-4 overall in its last 10 games. San Diego has won 3 of its last 4 games and is also 6-4 overall in its last 10.
Padres at the Phillies have planned starters
HPL Blake Snell vs HPR Zack Wheeler
Snell makes his 2022 debut for the Padres after suffering a groin injury that has sidelined him thus far.
- 2021 vs. Phillies: 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 1 HR, 6 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.79 FIP with an expected batting average of .156 / .293 / .300 (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slant line, 31.1 K% and speed out of 86.9 mph (EV) in 45 plate appearances (PA).
Wheeler is 1-3 with a 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 31 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- 2021 vs. Padres: No decision in Philly’s 4-3 loss to San Diego on July 2 with 7 2/3 no score IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 1.97 FIP with a .224/.247/.315 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 32.8K%, and 84.9 mph EV in 64 AP.
Padres to Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; go to the USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds center for a complete list. Lines last updated at 12:44 p.m. ET.
- Silver Line (ML): Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Race Line (RL)/Against Spread (ATS): Fathers +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Padres to Phillies picks and predictions
Phillies 4, Padres 3
the PHILIPPINES (-155) are the right side because they hit the left-handed throw better than the Padres hit the right-handed throw, Wheeler’s base throwing numbers will improve, and he’ll throw better at home.
The Philly roster ranks 5th in wRC+ (117) and 3rd in wOBA (.338) against lefties according to FanGraphs. While the San Diego roster is 21st in wRC+ (91) and 24th in wOBA (.290) against the right-handed pitcher.
Wheeler ranks in the 90th percentile for barrel rate and 85th percentile for chase rate (according to Statcast) and his form will improve as the summer progresses. Wheeler has a 1.93 home ERA this season (10.80 ERA on the road) and a 0.94 WHIP (2.16 WHIP on the road).
However, I would only RISK 1 unit on the PHILIPPINES (-155) at that price instead of betting to win 1 unit on Philly’s ML.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS as the Phillies are 7-10 RL as home favorites and the Padres are 6-0 RL as road underdogs.
Light SKINNY to LESS THAN 7.5 (-122) because there is reverse line movement south of the total and the Unders have conceded 6 of the last 8 Padres-Phillies meetings.
According to Pregame.com, around 70% of the money is in the Over, but the total has been lowered from an 8-point opener and the Under is more expensive. This type of line movement is very suspicious and bettors seem like bold bettors to get the upper hand.
However, I prefer Phillies over the ML more than the LESS THAN 7.5 (-122) because we don’t know what kind of Snell we’ll see when he first comes out.
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