Picks for week 13 including Patriots v Bills and Chargers v Bengals – The Athletic


And just like that, we enter the final third of the 2021 NFL season. Twelve weeks have passed, with the playoff image changing frequently in both conferences, although several familiar faces are once again leading their divisions. But there has been one constant during this extremely unpredictable season, and it would be a bet that the Underdogs would continue to cover and win with consistency. We’ve seen 73 underdogs win so far, an average of over six per week as many more have covered.

Take a look at some of the best week 12 betting data here:

The Underdogs were 8-7 ATS last week, the fourth time in five weeks they have posted a record winning record. Like we’ve said all season, they do a lot more than cover (unless it’s Detroit). Seven other dogs won last week. Miami and Denver won 23 and 15 points respectively, swelling the average winning margin to 9.1 points per game. We have up to 73 outsider wins in 12 weeks. At this point, there are very few safe bets.

Las Vegas was the heaviest underdog to win last week, beating the Cowboys 36-33 at Thanksgiving after finishing with 7.5 underdogs. The Raiders let an 11-point second-half lead evaporate, but two costly penalties against Dallas saw Daniel Carlson win the game in overtime.

The point totals were much closer than in recent weeks. The under always won, with an 8-7 record. Fifteen teams have scored 20 points or less this week. There were also six games where neither team exceeded 21 points, but four more where both exceeded 25 points. No shortage of parity last week.


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